IB skill practice

Use Bayes theorem and conditional probability

Apply conditional probability and Bayes theorem in structured probability contexts.

Paper 1, Paper 2 5 marks Difficulty 3

Use Bayes theorem and conditional probability - Bayes theorem and posterior probability item

Case A3. In scholarship shortlist, \(P(award)=0.35\), \(P(shortlisted|award)=0.72\), and \(P(shortlisted|not award)=0.11\). Calculate \(P(award\mid shortlisted)\), the numerical probability for wins the award, and select the interpretation.

Worked practice: probability

Write the probability as a fraction or decimal, then interpret it if the question asks for a conclusion.