Use Bayes theorem and conditional probability - Bayes theorem and posterior probability item
Case A3. In scholarship shortlist, \(P(award)=0.35\), \(P(shortlisted|award)=0.72\), and \(P(shortlisted|not award)=0.11\). Calculate \(P(award\mid shortlisted)\), the numerical probability for wins the award, and select the interpretation.
Worked practice: probability
Write the probability as a fraction or decimal, then interpret it if the question asks for a conclusion.
Write a full answer
Now write the response in full, in your own words — this is what the exam asks for. The AI marks it on the same moves you built above (focus, evidence, technique, judgement) and gives feedback on reasoning, evidence, and expression.